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Asean Confidential - Premium Investment Insight

Update alert

Indonesian loan growth slows to a multi-year low

Credit growth in Indonesia continues to moderate, rising only 15% YoY in July, vs 17.2% YoY in June, and significantly below the 20-25% consistent levels recorded over the last decade. This indicates that central bank (BI) tightening and administrative measures are taking effect, although it continues to keep interest rates steady at 7.5%.

19 Sep

Malaysia keeps rates unchanged at 3.25%

Malaysia’s central bank left its benchmark rate at 3.25% as we expected. We believe the bank will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year since inflation is driven mostly by supply-side factors while domestic demand is growing at a moderate pace.

18 Sep

Malaysia’s industrial figures point to weak 3Q14 GDP growth

After a strong showing in 1H14, Malaysia’s industrial production index barely grew in July, expanding 0.5% YoY vs 7.0% YoY in June. We believe that this weak growth will convince the central bank to refrain from raising its benchmark rate next week when its Monetary Policy Committee meets.

11 Sep

Macro

Asean's lingering policy challenges

The Philippines faces a major challenge as it must resolve its problem with port congestion which jeopardises its GDP growth, or risk damaging its new-found popularity with investors. 

03 Sep

Big Call

Thai tourism set to stabilise

Our research indicates that Thai tourism is set to stabilise in 2H14, and rebound strongly in 2015, assuming political risks continue to recede.

03 Sep

Finance

Malaysian funds on the global hunt for yield

Government-linked funds are major participants in Malaysia’s capital markets: we estimate they control 30% of the MYR1.7tn local equity market, with the Employee Provident Fund alone making up about half of daily trading volumes. These funds are outgrowing the domestic market, but investments abroad have faced growing criticism over an alleged lack of transparency. 

03 Sep

Consumer

Battles lie ahead for messaging apps WhatsApp, Line and Viber

Our latest survey shows that while social networking in the Asean 5 continues to be dominated by Facebook, the mobile messaging app field varies significantly between the region’s countries.

03 Sep

Capital Investment

No quick fix for Philippine infrastructure

Congestion at the Philippines' main port in Manila poses a serious challenge to the Philippines economy. Authorities must act quickly to resolve this as the bottlenecks threaten the country's 6% GDP growth target.

03 Sep

Indonesia hammers out mineral future

Indonesian metal miners may likely resume exports shortly following the government's reduction of the export tax. We note that the KPK has also begun to combat smuggling and we believe that this has had some impact on black market supplies of tin and possibly nickel. We believe that tin prices will likely rise as supply contracts, while nickel slips and aluminium and copper stay roughly level.

06 Aug

Penang’s development shifts towards mainland

Penang is a rapidly growing manufacturing hub, particularly for electronics, with growing wealth and significant FDI, but land shortages are forcing development off the island to satellite areas, such as Batu Kawan. We are optimistic on the city’s growth trajectory, though infrastructure growth faces risks from fragile relations between the state and central governments.

09 Jul

Myanmar gets connected

The opening of Myanmar’s mobile phone market has provoked fierce competition between Telenor and Ooredoo as the new licensees look to exploit a virtually untapped market. We expect rapid growth in the sector, though the telecoms companies will face significant logistical and regulatory challenges. 

06 Aug

Lift-off for Myanmar’s real estate and banking sectors

Our research looks at the rapidly advancing property market in Myanmar, where foreign developers are driving a construction boom, though legal deficiencies continue to provide reasons for caution. Similarly, the opening up of the banking sector is attracting strong foreign interest, though the government will carefully limit the activities of the first foreign licensees.

09 Jul

Latest Report

2014-09-04 Report

04 Sep 2014

Philippine trade hits a roadblock

The Philippines faces a major challenge as its port congestion jeopardises GDP growth. It must resolve this or risk damaging its new-found popularity with investors. 

Bottom line

AC-20140904-bottom-line

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