A Financial Times Service
Asean Confidential - Premium Investment Insight

Update alert

Philippine 4Q14 growth surge masks underlying weaknesses

Philippine 4Q14 GDP growth came in at 6.9% YoY, considerably above expectations, and the fastest acceleration since 3Q13. However, upon closer inspection the number is not as impressive as it seems, in our view, and may be subject to revision.

30 Jan

Indonesian consumers optimistic about rupiah

Asean Confidential’s recent poll of 1,000 Indonesian consumers found growing optimism that the rupiah may have hit a floor. We are concerned that this confidence may be excessive, with downside risks far from over; nevertheless, it is also clear that Indonesian consumers have grown more cautious in their borrowing habits. 

29 Jan

Thailand, Malaysia hold interest rates steady

Both Malaysia and Thailand kept interest rates unchanged today, despite Singapore simultaneously loosening its monetary stance. We expect Malaysia to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, attempting to balance growing inflationary pressures with weakening domestic demand.  

28 Jan

Macro

Philippines – power shortages looming?

While temporary measures may cushion the impact of expected power shortages in the Philippines in 2Q15, limiting the macroeconomic impact, without greater coordination of electricity supply, problems are likely to re-emerge.

14 Jan

Big Call

Philippines – power shortages looming?

While temporary measures may cushion the impact of expected power shortages in the Philippines in 2Q15, limiting the macroeconomic impact, without greater coordination of electricity supply, problems are likely to re-emerge.

14 Jan

Finance

Thai consumer debt continues to rise

A year ago, Asean Confidential warned of the rapid expansion in household debt in Thailand, arguing that while no crisis was imminent, credit-fuelled spending could no longer spur private consumption. While growth in consumer borrowing has decelerated rapidly over the past year, household debt continues to rise.

12 Nov

Consumer

Another good year ahead for autos?

Asean Confidential survey data shows steady demand for cars heading into 2015, though sales growth has slowed in the biggest markets. Toyota and Honda remain favourite brands, but our latest survey suggests their popularity has slipped.

14 Jan

Capital Investment

Singaporean hinterlands capture economic spill-over

Land shortages in Singapore and the slump in the ringgit and rupiah should continue to support growth in Iskandar and Batam, which benefit from positive economic spill-overs from their wealthy neighbour.

14 Jan

Thailand – southern malaise to continue?

In this regional analysis, we examine the three biggest cities in southern Thailand, finding that recent sluggish development is set to continue in 2015, largely due to weak infrastructure links, falling rubber prices and growing household debt.

14 Jan

Unlocking Mindanao’s potential

Several issues which have hindered investment in Mindanao in the past, such as security and power shortages, are now being addressed and this progress is spurring fresh investment in Mindanao island. We estimate that Mindanao’s GDP could grow 50% over the next decade, driven by mining, palm oil, rubber and new cash crops, such as cacao and coffee. 

10 Dec

Myanmar gets connected

The opening of Myanmar’s mobile phone market has provoked fierce competition between Telenor and Ooredoo as the new licensees look to exploit a virtually untapped market. We expect rapid growth in the sector, though the telecoms companies will face significant logistical and regulatory challenges. 

06 Aug

Lift-off for Myanmar’s real estate and banking sectors

Our research looks at the rapidly advancing property market in Myanmar, where foreign developers are driving a construction boom, though legal deficiencies continue to provide reasons for caution. Similarly, the opening up of the banking sector is attracting strong foreign interest, though the government will carefully limit the activities of the first foreign licensees.

09 Jul

Latest Report

2015-01-15 Report

15 Jan 2015

Industrial revival

Despite significant economic headwinds for Malaysia and Indonesia, the prospects for their territories neighbouring Singapore – Iskandar and the Riau Islands – remain strong.

Bottom line

AC-20150115-bottom-line

Back to top

COOKIE POLICY

We use cookies to improve site performance and enhance your user experience. If you’d like to disable cookies on this device, please see our cookie management page. If you close this message or continue to use the site, you consent to our use of cookies on this device in accordance with our cookie policy, unless you disable them.