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Asean Confidential - Premium Investment Insight

Update alert

Can Indonesia and Vietnam realise their tourism potential?

In a region blessed with natural attractions, Thailand and Malaysia still attract the lion’s share of tourists. But competition is heating up. 

30 Mar

Vietnam 1Q15 GDP passes the 6% mark

Vietnam’s GDP grew 6.03% YoY in 1Q15, beating most forecasts and expectations, mostly on the back of industrial activity. Although this raises the bar for the remainder of the year, we note a recent slowdown in the export growth that has provided the foundations for this recovery.

27 Mar

AIIB: will it set up in Asean?

We see some possibility that the China-led “Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank” may establish its headquarters within Asean. Overall, we view the initiative as a positive development for countries with funding deficiencies, although we note that infrastructure in Asean has often been held by back institutional, legal, and land acquisition weaknesses, rather than a lack of bankable projects per se.

24 Mar

Macro

Oil price fall a boon for Asean consumers

The oil price slump is reducing inflation across the region – offering greater space for supportive policy measures – and lowering the cost of travel. Indeed, a rebound in tourism to, from and within Asean is a bright spot in a somewhat subdued regional picture.

18 Mar

Big Call

Manila residential property market slows, but developers adapt

As the metro Manila residential property market softens, the leading developers have adapted to shifting market dynamics and have focused on ambitious integrated developments – combining residential, office and retail – in the outlying suburbs that should ensure long-term growth.

18 Mar

Finance

Thai consumer debt continues to rise

A year ago, Asean Confidential warned of the rapid expansion in household debt in Thailand, arguing that while no crisis was imminent, credit-fuelled spending could no longer spur private consumption. While growth in consumer borrowing has decelerated rapidly over the past year, household debt continues to rise.

12 Nov

Consumer

Falling fuel prices to boost Asean tourist numbers

Asean Confidential survey data suggests that outbound tourism from Asean is set to rise on falling prices due to lower fuel costs. Thais are most likely to make further travel plans this year.

18 Mar

Capital Investment

Vietnam oil refineries stuck in pipeline

New oil refineries in Vietnam could boost industrial development, enhance domestic energy security and reduce a yawning trade deficit. But despite bold government promises, many construction projects remain a long way from breaking ground.

18 Feb

Thailand – a lack of momentum in the north

In this regional analysis, we find that despite benefiting from a boom in tourism, Thailand’s north is suffering from the same lack of economic momentum we have observed across the country. Nonetheless, the region has enormous long-term potential.

18 Mar

Thailand – a mixed outlook for Isan

In this regional analysis, we examine three urban centres in Isan – north-east Thailand – finding little cause for short-term optimism on either consumption or industrial activity, but we remain bullish on the region over the longer term.

18 Feb

Myanmar gets connected

The opening of Myanmar’s mobile phone market has provoked fierce competition between Telenor and Ooredoo as the new licensees look to exploit a virtually untapped market. We expect rapid growth in the sector, though the telecoms companies will face significant logistical and regulatory challenges. 

06 Aug

Lift-off for Myanmar’s real estate and banking sectors

Our research looks at the rapidly advancing property market in Myanmar, where foreign developers are driving a construction boom, though legal deficiencies continue to provide reasons for caution. Similarly, the opening up of the banking sector is attracting strong foreign interest, though the government will carefully limit the activities of the first foreign licensees.

09 Jul

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